How Much Should You Actually Spend on Black Friday? A Practical E-commerce Budget Formula

Black Friday is coming.

So, how can a smaller DTC brand get noticed?

And if you run an e-commerce brand, you might be thinking, “We still have plenty of time to figure this out.”

Not really.

Black Friday planning should ideally start well before the sale itself. Your advertising budget, inventory, email list, offers and even supplier conversations need to be sorted out in advance. When everything is left until November, there is very little room to fix mistakes.

And the opportunity is not small. Shopify’s 2025 BFCM results show that Shopify merchants generated $14.6 billion in sales over Black Friday Cyber Monday, up 27% from 2024. More than 81 million customers purchased from Shopify-powered businesses during the period.

So, how much should you actually spend on Black Friday?

No single figure is suitable for all businesses. A small e-commerce brand and a $2 million brand obviously shouldn’t have the same budget.

Instead, your Black Friday budget should be based on your normal revenue, advertising spend, expected demand and channel performance.

Let’s break it down.

1. Start With Your Black Friday Revenue Potential

The first thing you need to understand is how important Black Friday can be for your annual sales.

The latest Shopify BFCM data gives us a useful picture of the scale. Shopify merchants generated $14.6 billion globally during BFCM 2025, while the average cart price was $114.70. Shopify also reported that more than 94,900 merchants had their highest-selling day ever on the platform.

Whereas Black Friday represents 80% of annual U.S. e-commerce sales, according to the latest article published in Media Post.

For example, let’s say your e-commerce business makes around $600K a year.

A reasonable planning range could look something like:

• Black Friday week: $18K-$25K
• November total: $40K-$60K
• A poorly planned Black Friday can put a noticeable dent in annual profit.

Now consider a business making $2 million annually.

Its numbers could look closer to:

• Black Friday week: $60K-$80K
• November total: $120K-$200K
• A weak campaign could mean a significant profit loss.

The exact numbers will differ by category and business, of course. But the bigger point is simple: Black Friday compresses a lot of buying activity into a short period.

That means your budget should be planned around the opportunity, not just around what you normally spend each month.

2. Don’t Ignore Email and SMS

Paid advertising usually gets a lot of attention during Black Friday.

But your existing audience can be just as important.

According to Klaviyo’s 2025 BFCM recap, email and text messaging drove 42% of total revenue across Klaviyo customers during BFCM 2025. That figure increased to 43% on peak days.

Klaviyo’s analysis covered a stable cohort of 10,000 brands, so it should be treated as a benchmark from Klaviyo’s ecosystem rather than a guarantee for every store.

Let’s take a simple example.

Imagine a beauty brand normally makes $150K per month and expects to generate around $580K during its Black Friday and Cyber Monday campaign.

If email and SMS contribute 42% of that revenue:

$580K × 42% = $243,600

That is a lot of revenue coming from people who already know your brand.

And the latest Klaviyo data gives another reason to pay attention to these channels. Customers who received messages from a brand through both email and text placed 11% more orders, added 34% more items to cart and viewed 71% more products than customers who received messages through only one of those channels. (Klaviyo’s BFCM 2025 data).

This is why building your email list before Black Friday matters.

For example, if you spend around $1,500 on list building and acquire 4,500 new subscribers, your approximate acquisition cost would be:

$1,500 ÷ 4,500 = $0.33 per email

If even a portion of those subscribers purchase during the sale, the return can be much higher than the original list-building cost.

The lesson here isn’t that every brand will get exactly the same ROI. It won’t.

The lesson is that your October budget should not be spent only on getting immediate sales. Some of it should be used to build an audience that you can sell to during Black Friday.

3. Your ROAS May Drop. That’s Not Always Bad

Here’s something that can confuse brands during Black Friday.

Your ROAS may actually become worse.

Competition increases. More brands are advertising. Ad costs can rise and customers have more offers to choose from.

Recent UpCounting ecommerce ROAS data puts average e-commerce ROAS at around 2.87 in 2025, although the benchmark varies significantly by business and industry.

Meanwhile, Hawke Media’s 2025 BFCM analysis compares platform performance and shows why brands should not assume that every advertising channel behaves in the same way during peak season.

So don’t panic just because your normal ROAS falls.

For example, a campaign that normally gets a 3.5:1 ROAS may deliver closer to 2.5:1 during Black Friday.

At first glance, that looks bad.

But let’s look at the actual numbers.

Normal month

Ad spend: $5,000

ROAS: 3.5:1

Revenue: $17,500

Profit after COGS and margins: around $8,000

Black Friday

Ad spend: $15,000

ROAS: 2.5:1

Revenue: $37,500

Profit: around $12,500

Your ROAS went down.

But your overall profit went up.

That is an important distinction.

ROAS measures efficiency. It does not tell you the whole profit story.

During a major sales event, you may deliberately accept a lower ROAS because there is much more volume available.

4. Plan Inventory Before You Increase Your Ad Spend

There is not much point in driving thousands of people to your website if your best-selling product goes out of stock halfway through the campaign.

Inventory should be forecast before your Black Friday advertising budget is increased.

Here’s a simple example.

Suppose your beauty brand sold 500 units in August.

If you use a planning multiplier of 2.2x, your Black Friday demand estimate becomes:

500 × 2.2 = 1,100 units

But Black Friday isn’t necessarily just one day for most e-commerce brands.

If you’re running a 10-day promotion and estimate that the full event could generate around 3.5 times the sales of Black Friday itself:

1,100 × 3.5 = 3,850 units

Now add a buffer.

A 20% inventory buffer would give you:

3,850 × 1.2 = 4,620 units

So, in this example, you would plan for approximately 4,620 units.

However, these 2.2x, 3.5x and 20% figures are planning assumptions in this example, not universal industry benchmarks. Don’t present them as research-backed figures unless you have a source specific to your category.

Your previous sales, product category, pricing, historical promotions and supplier lead times should all be considered.

Still, having a formula is much better than simply guessing.

For current BFCM planning guidance, Klaviyo’s 2026 BFCM checklist also recommends reviewing the customer experience, product imagery, early access, audience segmentation, discounts, returns and post-BFCM loyalty ahead of the event.

5. Don’t Discount Everything by 40%

This is where a lot of brands can hurt their margins.

A big discount looks attractive to customers, but it doesn’t automatically mean it is good for the business.

Instead of putting every product on sale, create different discount levels based on your margins.

For example:

Product	Retail Price	COGS	Discount	Black Friday Price
Bestseller Cleanser	$45	$12	25%	$33.75
High-margin serum	$95	$18	15%	$80.75
Moisturizer	$65	$20	10%	$58.50
Bundle	$180	$50	20%	$144

The idea is pretty simple.

Products with stronger margins can carry a bigger discount. Products where your margins are already tight should be protected.

Compare that with giving everything a flat 40% discount.

You might get more attention, but a large part of your profit disappears with the discount.

There is also current data suggesting that deeper discounts are not always necessary. Klaviyo’s 2025 BFCM recap found that discounts fell 10% year over year, while consumer spending increased 11%.

Brands offering the smallest discounts recorded the highest growth in its dataset, at 14% year over year. Daily average discount depth did not exceed 30% across Klaviyo brands, except for the Home & Garden category.

So before announcing “40% OFF EVERYTHING”, check the numbers.

Your customers may love the offer.

Your finance team probably won’t.

6. Build Your Email List Before November

If you want your email campaign to perform during Black Friday, don’t start building your list when Black Friday arrives.

Start earlier.

October can be used to run a dedicated list-building campaign.

For example:

• Offer: 10-15% off
• Landing page: Dedicated email sign-up page
• Channels: Meta and TikTok
• Budget: $1,500
• Goal: Build a qualified subscriber base before the sale

The numbers in the supplied example suggest that a $1,500 campaign could acquire around 4,500 emails, giving an acquisition cost of approximately $0.33 per email.

For a broader current reference point, Retainful’s March 2026 ecommerce CAC guide discusses current acquisition costs, LTV and the relationship between acquisition and retention.

But don’t only look at the cost per email.

Ask a better question:

How much revenue can these subscribers generate over time?

If 4,500 people join your list and 22% purchase at an $85 average order value:

4,500 × 22% × $85 = $84,150

And that’s before considering repeat purchases.

This is why an email list shouldn’t be viewed simply as a database of contacts. It can become one of your most valuable sales channels when it is built properly.

7. How Should You Divide Your Black Friday Budget?

Let’s say your normal monthly advertising budget is $1,500.

During Black Friday, you might increase that to around $7,500, depending on your cash flow and historical performance.

One example allocation would be:

Channel	Budget Share	Spend	Example ROAS
Email	40%	$3000	7:1
Meta	30%	$2250	2:8:1
Google Shopping	20%	$1500	3:2:1
TikTok	10%	$750	1:5:1

This is not a rule that every business needs to follow.

Your numbers should be based on your own historical performance.

If Google Shopping consistently brings better customers for you, more money can be moved there.

If TikTok is mainly being used for discovery, it may receive a smaller share.

The important thing is to allocate based on performance rather than gut feeling.

And remember that benchmarks change. Hawke Media’s latest BFCM analysis compares 2024 and 2025 platform performance, including changes in Meta, Google, Bing, Shopping and other channels.

8. Your Black Friday Emails Need a Plan

Once your list has been built, don’t send one email saying:

“Black Friday is here! Buy now!”

and call it a strategy.

Your customers should hear from you before the main event.

For example, you could structure your campaign like this:

November 1-7: Early Access

Give your subscribers an early opportunity to shop.

Your first email could introduce the offer and create a reason to buy early.

A second email can remind people that the offer is ending soon.

A third email can create urgency around the closing window.

November 24-December 4: Main Sale

The main campaign can then be opened to a wider audience.

You could send:

• Black Friday launch email
• Bestseller or low-stock reminder
• Cyber Monday email
• Cart abandonment reminders

The exact send dates should be adjusted according to your campaign calendar and audience behaviour.

Also, don’t blindly copy another brand’s send time.

Your audience may behave differently.

Klaviyo’s 2026 Black Friday email guide recommends using previous performance data to determine timing rather than relying only on generic industry averages. Its current guidance also notes that 40% of consumers shop during BFCM sales, while 24% begin shopping earlier.

Test your email timing before November so you’re not guessing during your biggest sales period.

9. What Should You Be Doing in September?

If you’re reading this in September, this is actually the useful part.

Don’t wait until November.

Current Klaviyo BFCM guidance for 2026 focuses on preparing your site, list, segmentation, product presentation, discounts, returns and customer experience before the shopping rush.

September 1-7

Start by looking at your existing numbers.

• Review August sales
• Identify bestsellers
• Estimate unit demand
• Review previous promotions
• Start mapping your discount structure

September 8-15

Now talk to suppliers.

• Get updated quotes
• Confirm November delivery timelines
• Lock in unit costs where possible
• Confirm payment terms
• Place inventory orders

September 16-22

Move towards marketing preparation.

• Create your email list-building offer
• Plan your landing page
• Prepare ad concepts
• Decide your audience segments
• Start preparing creative

September 23-30

Then start building the campaign itself.

• Finalise email sequences
• Set up your landing page
• Prepare your checkout flow
• Test tracking
• Start with a small advertising test

By October, your focus should be shifting from “What are we going to do?” to “Let’s test and improve what we’ve already built.”

10. A Simple Black Friday Budget Formula

First and foremost, you don’t need a complex spreadsheet.

Begin with four numbers:

1. Your normal monthly revenue
2. Your normal monthly ad spend
3. Your expected Black Friday revenue
4. Your expected channel contribution

For example:

• Monthly revenue: $150,000
• Monthly ad spend: $1,500
• Black Friday revenue target: $580,000

Then estimate:

• Email/SMS revenue: 42%
• Paid advertising revenue: 35%
• Other channels: 23%

The 42% figure comes from Klaviyo’s 2025 BFCM dataset, while the remaining percentages here are simply part of this planning model and should not be presented as industry benchmarks.

From there, you can work backwards and decide how much you can reasonably invest.

The most important thing is not to copy another brand’s budget.

A company spending $25,000 on Black Friday may have completely different margins, inventory levels, average order values and customer acquisition costs than you.

Your budget needs to make sense for your numbers.

Final Thoughts

Black Friday is not just an advertising event.

It is an operations, inventory, email, pricing, and customer acquisition event all happening at once.

That is why the brands that perform well usually don’t start thinking about it a week before the sale.

• They know what they want to sell.
• They know how much inventory they need.
• Their email list has already been built.
• Their offers have been planned.
• Their campaigns have been tested.

And most importantly, they know what the numbers need to look like before they start spending.

The latest data gives brands a useful starting point. Shopify reported $14.6 billion in BFCM sales from its merchants in 2025, while Klaviyo reported that email and text messaging drove 42% of revenue across its BFCM 2025 customer cohort. Klaviyo also found that repeat-customer revenue grew 13.5% year over year and that discounts fell while consumer spending increased.

But those numbers don’t tell you exactly what your store should spend.

So, how much should you spend on Black Friday?

Enough to capture the opportunity, but only after you understand the economics behind it.

Don’t increase your budget just because everyone else is spending more.

Look at your margins, previous performance, inventory, customer value and channel-level ROAS.

Then build your Black Friday budget around the numbers, not the hype.