When Should You Start Black Friday Ads? September vs. October Data + Timeline

Black Friday may happen in November, but your advertising shouldn’t necessarily wait until November.

If you’re planning your Black Friday campaigns for 2026, you may already be asking yourself:

When should I actually start running ads?

Should you start in September? Wait until October? Or save most of the budget for Black Friday week?

The answer isn’t the same for every business. But recent holiday shopping data gives us one clear takeaway: customers are researching and planning their purchases well before Black Friday.

According to Microsoft Advertising’s 2026 holiday shopping research, the average holiday conversion journey now takes 52 days.  Microsoft also found that October is the first click for 56% of November conversions and 35% of December conversions. In the U.S., 63% of shoppers start holiday shopping before Halloween.

So, September and October shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as “too early.”

They can be used to build demand before shoppers are ready to buy.

The Short Answer: Start Before Black Friday

For many ecommerce businesses, a practical Black Friday advertising timeline can look like this:

• September: Test creatives and build audiences
• October: Build awareness, prospect and grow your email list
• Early November: Retarget interested shoppers and introduce stronger promotional messaging
• Mid-November: Increase spending behind campaigns that are already working
• Black Friday: Push your strongest conversion campaigns
• Cyber Monday: Continue high-intent campaigns and create urgency
• After Cyber Monday: Retarget remaining shoppers and move into the rest of the holiday season

This doesn’t mean you should spend your entire Black Friday budget in September.

Instead, think of the earlier months as the period when you learn, test and prepare.

Microsoft’s 2026 holiday research describes holiday shopping as moving toward earlier deal hunting and says brands should create demand before shoppers have already made their shortlist.

Why Starting Early Matters

Black Friday has become much bigger than a single shopping day.

Customers may discover a product weeks before they actually purchase it. They might compare prices, read reviews, visit several websites and then return when a promotion appears.

Recent data gives us an idea of just how much activity happens around the broader BFCM period.

Triple Whale’s BFCM 2025 report tracked $2.9 billion in revenue, 26 million orders and $607 million in ad spend across the brands included in its dataset.

The report analysed data from more than 50,000 active accounts across platforms including Meta, Google Ads, Amazon, TikTok and AppLovin.

That is a huge amount of activity happening in just four days. But the important part for advertisers is what happens before those four days. If you only start advertising on Black Friday, you have less time to discover what your audience responds to. If you start earlier, you can test before the most important shopping days arrive.

September: Start Testing, Not Scaling

September doesn’t need to be your biggest spending month.

For many businesses, it can be the month when you start testing.

You can use September to test:

• Ad creatives
• Product images
• Short-form videos
• Headlines
• Landing pages
• Audience segments
• Email sign-up campaigns
• Offers
• Retargeting audiences

The objective is simple: Find out what works before you put serious money behind it.

For example, you may discover that a product video gets more engagement than a static product image. Or perhaps one audience is clicking frequently but isn’t purchasing. That information is useful.  You have time to make changes.

Why September?

According to Shopify’s 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report, 26% of shoppers said they start holiday shopping by the end of September.

The same report was based on a survey of 18,000 shoppers and 7,500 businesses across nine countries.

That doesn’t mean every shopper starts buying in September.

But it does show that a portion of your potential customers may already be researching products while many brands are still waiting for November.

So September can be used to get your brand in front of them.

October: Build Demand and Your Audience

October is where your campaign can start becoming more active.

Now is a good time to concentrate on:

• Prospecting
• Awareness
• Product education
• Email list building
• Retargeting
• Creative optimisation
• Gift guides
• Early Black Friday messaging

The reason October matters is particularly interesting. Microsoft’s 2026 holiday research found that October is the first click for 56% of November conversions.

In other words, a person who clicks an advertisement in October may not buy immediately.

• They could return later.
• They could search for the product again.
• They could sign up for an email.
• Or they could wait for the Black Friday offer.

That means October advertising shouldn’t always be judged only by immediate sales. The campaign may also be helping to build the audience that converts later.

October Is a Good Time to Grow Your Email List

Paid advertising is only one part of the Black Friday strategy. Your email list can become equally important.

You can entice visitors to register for:

• Early Black Friday access
• Special discounts
• Gift guides
• Product recommendations
• Exclusive bundles
• Restock alerts
• First access to deals

Shopify’s 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report found that shoppers were becoming more deliberate about their spending. Globally, planned BFCM spending increased from $155 in 2024 to $192 in 2025, while 51% of shoppers said they planned to set clear spending caps.

That means your offer matters. People may be looking for a deal, but they are also deciding where their limited holiday budget should go. Your email campaigns can be used to explain the value of the product before the sale begins.

November: Start Turning Interest Into Sales

By November, your campaign shouldn’t be starting from zero.

Ideally, you’ll already know:

• Which creatives get attention
• Which products attract interest
• Which audiences respond
• Which landing pages work
• Which channels bring useful traffic
• What your customers are interested in

Now you can increase the focus on conversions.

For example:

• September: Discover the product.
• October: Learn more and join the list.
• Early November: Get ready for the offer.
• Black Friday: Buy at the promotional price.
• Cyber Monday: Last opportunity or additional offer.

This creates a journey instead of showing the same discount to everyone.

Don’t Assume Advertising Costs Always Rise Before Black Friday

This is one part of the original Black Friday draft that is worth changing.

It would be easy to say:

“CPC always becomes more expensive as Black Friday approaches.” But current data doesn’t support such a simple statement.

The behaviour can differ by platform.

For example, Power Digital’s 2025 Cyber 5 ecommerce analysis found that Meta CPC was 18% lower year over year during Cyber 5, while TikTok CPC increased 14.3%.

So there isn’t one universal CPC trend that applies to every advertising platform.

Instead, advertisers should watch their own:

• CPC
• CPM
• CTR
• Conversion rate
• CAC
• ROAS
• Revenue
• Profit margin

The timing of your campaign matters, but so does what happens inside the campaign.

Google Ads Can Behave Differently During Peak Season

Google advertising also needs to be looked at separately. Optmyzr’s 2026 analysis of the 2025 holiday season analysed more than 4,200 Google Ads accounts and 22,800 campaigns. Its analysis found that click costs reached their highest levels during the four days from Black Friday through Cyber Monday.

Conversion rates also increased during that period.

However, the increase in conversion efficiency didn’t completely offset the higher click costs. Optmyzr reported that ROAS fell 22% for Standard Shopping and 13% for Performance Max during the four-day peak period.

The lesson here is fairly simple: More people buying doesn’t automatically mean every campaign becomes more profitable. You still need to watch the numbers.

Black Friday Is Still the Big Event

Starting early doesn’t mean Black Friday itself is becoming less important.

It isn’t.

The 2025 numbers show just how large the shopping period remains.

Triple Whale’s 2025 BFCM report recorded $2.9 billion in revenue and 26 million orders across the brands included in its dataset during the four-day BFCM period.

Shopify also reported strong results in its 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report, with shoppers planning to spend more during the holiday season.

So the objective isn’t to move your entire Black Friday campaign into September.

The goal is to have an audience that is already familiar with your brand when Black Friday arrives.

Mobile Shopping Should Be Part of Your Plan

Don’t forget about mobile.

According to Adobe’s 2025 U.S. holiday shopping forecast, mobile devices were expected to generate 56.1% of U.S. online holiday spending, worth approximately $142.7 billion.

Over 1 trillion visits to US retail websites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories were included in Adobe’s projection. That means your Black Friday strategy shouldn’t stop at making an advertisement mobile-friendly. The entire buying journey should work well on a phone.

Check your:

• Product pages
• Images
• Videos
• Checkout
• Payment process
• Discount codes
• Forms
• Pop-ups
• Shipping information

A person might click your ad on their phone and still leave if the checkout is difficult.

What About AI Shopping?

Black Friday 2026 is also different from previous years because shoppers are increasingly using AI during product research.

Microsoft’s 2026 holiday research reports that 76% of U.S. shoppers plan to use AI to plan their seasonal spending.

Shopify’s 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report similarly found that 64% of shoppers planned to use AI tools for holiday shopping, with the figure rising to 84% among shoppers aged 18–24.

This gives brands another reason to make product information clear.

Your product descriptions should answer basic questions.

Your website should clearly explain:

• What the product is
• Who it is for
• How it works
• How much it costs
• What makes it different
• Shipping information
• Return policies
• Available sizes or variants

If shoppers are using AI to compare products, unclear information can make the buying process harder.

A Practical Black Friday Advertising Timeline for 2026

You don’t have to follow one rigid schedule, but this is a useful framework.

Period	Main objective	What to focus on
September	Testing	Creatives, audiences, landing pages, email capture
October 1–15	Demand building	Prospecting, awareness, product education
October 15–31	Audience warming	Retargeting, email growth, teasers
November 1–15	Conversion preparation	Early offers, remarketing, high-intent campaigns
November 16–26	Build urgency	Promotional messaging and retargeting
November 27	Black Friday	Strongest conversion campaigns
November 28–30	BFCM continuation	Retargeting and Cyber Monday campaigns
December	Late-season demand	Gift cards, shipping deadlines and remarketing

The exact schedule should depend on your business.

A customer buying a $20 product may have a very different journey from someone considering a $2,000 product.

Microsoft’s current research gives a useful benchmark, with the average holiday conversion journey reported at 52 days. But that should not be treated as a rule for every business. (Microsoft Advertising)

What If You Start in October?

Don’t panic. October can still be useful.

If you haven’t started yet, focus on the basics. Test your strongest creatives You don’t need dozens of advertisements. Start with a few strong concepts and find out which ones get the best response.

Build your retargeting audiences

People who have already visited your website or interacted with your content can become valuable audiences later, subject to your tracking and consent setup.

Build your email list

Give shoppers a reason to subscribe. Early access can work better than simply asking someone to “join our newsletter.”

Prepare your Black Friday offer

Decide in advance:

• What will be discounted?
• Which products will be excluded?
• Will you offer free shipping?
• Will you create bundles?
• How long will the offer run?
• What happens when stock runs low?
• Check your tracking

Before spending more money, make sure your conversion tracking is working. Otherwise, you may be making decisions from incomplete data.

What If You Start in November?

You have less time, but you can still work with what you have.

Instead of trying to build an entirely new strategy in a few weeks, focus on:

• Best-selling products
• Existing customers
• Website visitors
• Email subscribers
• Proven creatives
• High-intent search
• Retargeting
• Clear offers

You should also be careful about making too many major changes immediately before peak days.

If a campaign has already demonstrated that it works, there is value in using that information rather than starting another round of experiments from scratch.

How Much Should You Spend on Black Friday Ads?

There isn’t a single Black Friday budget that works for every company. A small ecommerce business and a national retailer won’t have the same customer acquisition costs, margins or advertising capacity.

So instead of saying: “Spend $10,000 in September and $30,000 in November.”

Build your budget around your own economics.

Consider:

• Average order value
• Gross margin
• Customer acquisition cost
• Previous campaign ROAS
• Repeat purchase rate
• Available inventory
• Email list size
• Retargeting audience size
• Expected demand

Then divide your budget across testing, audience building and peak conversion periods. The goal is not simply to spend more during Black Friday.  The goal is to spend where the numbers make sense.

The Biggest Mistake: Starting From Zero on Black Friday

The biggest problem isn’t necessarily starting in October instead of September. It’s waiting until Black Friday to start everything.

By then, customers may already have:

• Researched products
• Compared prices
• Joined email lists
• Seen competitor advertisements
• Created wish lists
• Decided which brands they want to buy from

And your brand may be entering the conversation very late. Microsoft’s 2026 holiday research found that 63% of U.S. shoppers start holiday shopping before Halloween.

So your Black Friday campaign doesn’t have to wait for Black Friday. It can start much earlier.

So, When Should You Start Black Friday Ads?

If you’re planning for Black Friday 2026, September is a reasonable time to start preparing and testing, while October can be used to build demand and audiences.

But that doesn’t mean you should spend your entire budget early.

Think of it as a progression:

• September = Test
• October = Build
• Early November = Warm and prepare
• Black Friday week = Convert and scale
• December = Capture late demand

The latest research shows that holiday shopping is becoming a longer, more research-driven process. Shoppers are starting earlier, using more channels and increasingly turning to AI while they compare products. (Microsoft Advertising; Shopify)

So don’t wait for Black Friday to think about your Black Friday strategy.

Start early enough to learn.

Build your audience before you need it.

And increase your spending when your own data shows that the campaign is ready to scale.